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View From the Right (for Walrusjester)

Noah Millman declares the Republican race to be kinda inconsequential.

Ross Douthat points out that Obama's positives are fragile ones.

Brendan Michael Dougherty points out that Romney is, despite all news reports, like, totally winning.


Noah Millman is on the money. As much as I'm enjoying the horse race right now -- and as much as I think Romney and Santorum (and Gingrich) symbolize different factions of the Republican coalition -- this is a tempest in a teapot. Romney/Obama looks like a closer race than Santorum/Obama, but unless a big surprise happens, it'll come down to gas prices and groceries. The less inflation we see in those costs, the more likely an Obama win, and vice-versa.

I'm still hoping for a big surprise, what with my love of drama. But in the real world, Romney gets the nomination after a prolonged battle and then loses to Obama by about the same margin McCain did. Commentators will say it's because Romney never connected with "the base," by which they mean Southerners, and we'll ponder the notion of a Republican party unmoored from its traditional geographic anchor.